Regional origins of employment volatility: evidence from German states |
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Authors: | Claudia M. Buch Martin Schlotter |
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Affiliation: | 1. Economics Department, University of Tübingen, CESifo, and IAW, Mohlstra?e 36, 72074, Tübingen, Germany 2. Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Poschingerstra?e 5, 81679, München, Germany
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Abstract: | Greater openness for trade can have positive welfare effects in terms of higher growth. But increased openness may also increase uncertainty through a higher volatility of employment. We use regional data from Germany to test whether openness for trade has an impact on volatility. We find a downward trend in the unconditional volatility of employment, paralleling patterns for output volatility. The conditional volatility of employment, measuring idiosyncratic developments across states, in contrast, has remained fairly unchanged. In contrast to evidence for the US, we do not find a significant link between employment volatility and trade openness. |
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