汇率波动与国际贸易量的不确定性关系-基于中国的经验证据

对于汇率波动与国际贸易量的关系,学界一直存有很大争议,但经验检验尚不足以为理论分析提供有说服力的证据。本文着重在如下三个细节方面做深做细:第一,更精确地测算汇率波动,发现并注重汇率波动对冲击可能存在的非对称特征;第二,以严格的内生性检验指导工具变量的应用;第三,模型设定采用联立方程同时考察出口需求和供给。文章发现,无论是贸易方向上还是贸易方式上,均没有理由认为汇率波动显著影响了出口需求,但汇率波动却显著抑制了中国的出口供给。

The Uncertain Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade: Evidence from China

There has always been a controversy about exchange rate volatility and international trade,yet empirical investigations do not provide persuasive evidence.This paper tries to explore three aspects:(1) to measure exchange rate volatility as precisely as possible and emphasize the asymmetric impulse responses of exchange rate volatility;(2) to implement rigorous endogeneity tests for guidance of IV applications;and (3) to estimate simultaneous equations to account for both demand and supply of exports.We find...