长江三角洲入境旅游发展趋同分析

文章以1991—2004年长三角各个城市入境旅游人数为指标,运用σ趋同、β趋同两种方法,分析了长三角入境旅游发展的趋同情况,结果发现:①长三角入境旅游发展不同年份间变差系数、基尼系数稍有波动,但总体上存在呈下降趋势,长三角入境旅游发展存在σ趋同;②长三角入境旅游发展存在β趋同,1991—2004年的趋同速度近3.3%;③1991—1998年的趋同速度为4.58%,大于1998—2004年的趋同速度3.24%;④在考虑人口、经济条件的影响下,长三角入境旅游发展的趋同速度大多集中在4.23%—4.30%之间,大于绝对趋同速度。并在此基础上探讨了长三角入境旅游发展趋同的内外动力机制,即市场拉动、政府调控。

ANALYSIS OF THE INBOUND TOURISM DEVELOPMENT SIMILARIZATION IN YANGTZE-DELTA

Taking the in-country tourist number from 1991 to 2004 as the index,this paper estimates the tourism development situation of each city in Yangtze-delta and then analyzes similarization of tourism development with the coefficient of variation and Gini Coefficient.As a result,the author found that although there were some fluctuations on both coefficients in the different year,the tourism development in Yangtze-delta had a falling trend as a whole,which just proved that it presented similarization in the development of Yangtze-delta.On the basic of this conclusion,the paper probed in the utter similarization and the qualification of similarization affected by population and economy.Out of analysis,author gained some phenomena as follows: firstly,it occurred similarization in the tourism development of Yangtze-delta and the speed of similarization from 1991 to 2004 is close to 3.3%;Secondly,the speed of similarization from 1991 to 1998 is 4.58% ,which is more than that from 1998 to 2004 as 3.24%.Thirdly,considering the effect of population and economy,the speed of most similarization is between 4.23% and 4.30%,which is more than utter similarization speed.And the author thinks of the driving of similarization and similarization as endogenetic driving and ectogenic driving,which is also market pull force and government regulating force.