中国资本流动的金融安全度测算:1995-2004

本文采用经济安全研究中的概率分析法,并运用国际通用的资本流动指标对我国资本流动的金融安全程度进行了整体测算,结果是一方面,1995-2004年我国资本流动的金融安全度较好,状态界定为基本安全;另一方面,资本流动运行中也存在潜在的金融安全问题。综合安全指数走势不平稳且存在一定的覆盖效应,个别指标的转化存在突变现象。

A Survey on Financial Security Degree of Capital Movement in China: 1995-2004

In this article we make a survey on financial security degree of capital movement in China,which rests on Probability Analytic Method in the economic security research and carries on several capital movement index commonly used in foreign.The results indicate that: on the one hand,the degree of the capital movement in China during the year 1995 and 2004 is good,the condition can be recognized as "the basic security",on the other hand,there are also some latent financial security problems,ie.the synthesis security index trend is not steady as well as the certain cover effect existed,sudden change phenomenon among some individual index.