科技创新、产业结构升级与碳排放的传导效应 ——基于半参数空间面板VAR模型

为了实现碳减排目标和碳中和愿景，在中国30个省市的面板数据基础上，构建半参数空间面板向量自回归模型（SSPVAR）,利用脉冲响应函数和导数散点图实证分析了科技创新、产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化、碳排放之间的双向空间传导效应，以及环境规制的非线性影响。结果表明：（1）科技创新、产业结构升级和碳排放之间存在时间滞后效应和空间传递效应。科技创新和碳排放存在显著的正向自强化效应和正向空间溢出效应，而产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化存在负向空间溢出效应。（2）科技创新促进本地和邻地产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化，但是产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化均对本地和邻地的科技创新产生不同程度的时间滞后性的抑制作用。（3）科技创新减少本地二氧化碳排放，但不利于邻地的碳减排；产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化有利于邻地碳减排，但增加了本地的二氧化碳排放，且产业结构高级化的碳减排效应比产业结构合理化更显著。（4）环境规制对科技创新、产业结构升级、碳排放都存在显著的非线性影响。

The Transmission Effect of Technological Innovation, Industrial Structure Upgrading and Carbon Emissions:Based on the Semi-parametric Space Panel Vector Autoregression Model

In order to achieve the carbon reduction target and carbon neutrality vision, based on panel data from 30 provinces and cities in China, building the semi-parametric space panel vector autoregression model (SSPVAR), using the impulse response function and derivative scatterplot empirical analysis on the bidirectional spatial conduction effect among technological innovation, the rationalization of industrial structure and advanced industrial structure, carbon emissions, and the nonlinear effects of environmental regulation. The results show that :(1) There are time lag effects and spatial transfer effects among technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions.Technological innovation and carbon emission have significant positive self-reinforcing effect and positive spatial spillover effect, while rationalization of industrial structure and upgrading of industrial structure have negative spatial spillover effect. (2) Technological innovation promotes the rationalization and upgrading of local and neighboring industrial structure, but both the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure have different degrees of time lag inhibition on local and neighboring technological innovation. (3) Technological innovation reduces local carbon dioxide emissions, but is not conducive to neighboring carbon reduction; The rationalization of industrial structure and the upgrading of industrial structure are beneficial to the carbon emission reduction of neighboring areas, but increase the local carbon dioxide emission, and the upgrading of industrial structure has a more significant carbon emission reduction effect than the rationalization of industrial structure. (4) Environmental regulation has a significant nonlinear impact on technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions.