中国建设用地爬坡潜在重点县域识别与分析

研究目的：识别全国建设用地爬坡潜在重点县域，服务国家低丘缓坡开发用地宏观管控。研究方法：以县域为统计单元，利用人口普查、数字高程模型和建设用地遥感解译数据，建立识别框架开展识别，并借助空间自相关、标准差椭圆、平均最近邻距离等方法对识别结果基本特征进行分析。研究结果：（1）识别框架分人口集聚势能、人均用地门槛和用地比率门槛3方面要素，共计9项判别指标，被识别县域须同时满足所有判别指标要求；（2）共识别出潜在重点爬坡县域311个，它们整体具备人口密度较大、坡地建设现象较普遍、建设用地需求较旺盛的统计特征；（3）潜在重点爬坡县域绝大部分位于东部季风区，尤其集中于温暖湿润的南方地区。研究结论：在全国范围上统筹指标体系，判断县域建设用地的爬坡迫切程度和潜力，可为深入谋划低丘缓坡开发用地指标的区域分配政策提供基础参考，有利于重点区域推进实施集约式爬坡和防止建设用地增量浪费。

Identification and Analysis of Potential Key Counties for Slope-Climbing Construction Land in China

The purposes of this study are to identify the potential key counties of slope-climbing construction land and to serve the national macro control of land development in gentle hillside. The research methods are as follows. Taking the county level as the statistical unit and using the census, digital elevation model and remote sensing interpretation data of construction land, the identification framework is established, and the basic characteristics of the recognition results are analyzed with the help of spatial autocorrelation, standard deviation ellipse and average nearest neighbor distance. The results show that: 1) the identification framework considers three factors, i.e., population agglomeration potential energy, per capita land use threshold and land use ratio threshold. There are nine discriminant indexes, and the identified counties must meet all of them at the same time. 2) A total of 311 potential key slope-climbing counties were identified with the statistical characteristics including large population density. The hillside building construction is common and the strong demand existed for construction land. 3) Most of potential key slope-climbing counties are located in the monsoon area of eastern China, especially in the warm and humid southern region. In conclusion, the overall planning of the index system nationwide to judge the urgency and potential of slope-climbing construction land in the county can provide a basic reference for further planning the regional quota allocation policy of land development in gentle hillside, which is conducive to promoting the implementation of intensive slope-climbing in key regions and preventing incremental waste of construction land.