World economy

Financial market moves in recent months suggest that there is increasing concern about a substantial global growth slowdown or even a recession. But we continue to see this as an over‐reaction to the weakening economic data; while the downside risks to the global outlook have clearly risen, our baseline forecast shows GDP growth of 2.7% in both 2019 and 2020, little changed from three months ago and only a touch weaker than the likely 3% rise in 2018.