房价上涨、通货膨胀与货币政策的选择

在房价上涨助推通货膨胀理论分析的基础上,采取VAR和条件均值模型对房价上涨是否助长了通货膨胀以及货币政策的切入时机进行实证分析。结果显示,房价上涨通过影响总需求对通货膨胀有正向推动作用,房价上涨超过5%的6个月后存款准备金率上调,超过10%的12个月后利率上调。对此,提出积极调控房价并适时调整货币政策的建议。

House Price Increase,Inflation and Choice of Monetary Policy

Based on the analysis of the theory that house price increase pushes up inflation,this paper adopts VAR（Value at Risk） and conditional mean model to make empirical analysis on whether house price increase really pushes up inflation and what is the best time to adjust monetary policy.It turns out that house price increase has a positive effect on pushing up inflation via influencing aggregate demand and six months after house price increases by more than five percent the deposit reserve ratio should be lifted while twelve months after house price increases by more than ten percent the interest rate should be lifted.In light of this finding,the paper advances some suggestions on how to take positive action to regulate house price and adjust monetary policy according to the need.