基于RS和GIS的土地利用结构动态变化及发展预测研究--以南通市为例

在遥感技术（RS）与地理信息系统（GIS）技术支持下，通过对南通市区2003年、2005年、2007年三期中巴地球资源卫星CBERS遥感影像数据进行处理，并通过对处理后的图像进行非监督分类获得了南通市三期土地利用类型图和不同土地利用类型的面积数据，之后通过对三期土地利用类型数据进行叠加分析，得到了南通市区土地利用类型转移矩阵，计算了各种地类的变化率，并对未来南通市区土地利用变化情况做出了预测，结果表明：1.南通市土地变化总体呈现出建设用地持续快速增长，耕地显著减少的趋势；2.导致这种变化的直接诱因则是南通城市化进程加快，经济发展迅速，建筑用地正在不断的取代耕地和其他用地；3.如果以当前的变化模式稳定延续下去，在2012年后很短时间内南通市区建设用地面积将占全区总面积的50%以上，同时耕地面积会进一步大幅下降，土地非农化的趋势将更加明显。

The analysis of land use structure change and developing trend in Nantong City based on the RS and GIS

Based on the RS and GIS, the research area＇s land use data were extracted from the remote sensing imagery, which were acquired by CBERS in 2003, 2005 and 2007. Then by doing a over layer analysis on three period, the spatial and temporal patterns of various land use types over the study area from 2003 to 2007 were examined and the major changing land use types and their transfer between each other were explored. Results show that：（1） The area of the construction land was increasing rapidly in past few years, but the area of farm land was decreasing signif-icantly; （2） The main reason for this change is the quickly urban-ization of Nantong, which was making more and more farm land and other types land change to the construction land; （3） The con-struction land area will make up more than 50% of the total area of the Nantong city and the area of farm land will be further de-crease dramatically, if the current change mode continued stably.