能源消费与环境污染对经济增长的影响分析——基于空间面板模型的实证研究

文章运用空间误差模型,考察了2000-2012年中国大陆各个省际区域能源消费、环境污染与经济增长的关系。研究表明:中国区域能源消费、环境污染与经济增长存在明显的空间自相关性,不同省份间的经济增长率空间集聚分布规律明显;考察期内的能源消费、环境污染对经济增长呈现正相关性;四种空间关系均会对经济增长及其空间相关性产生影响,其中几何中心距离关系影响最为明显;模型均显示出区域间的正向相关,而以空间固定时间不固定效应相关性最高。据此提出要结合区域间的能源禀赋、环境约束等实行差异化的政策,以保证能源、环境与经济的正向互动与协调发展。

An Analysis on the Impact of Energy Consumption and Environmental Pollution on Economic Growth-The Empirical Study Based on the Spatial Panel Model

Using the spatial error model,the paper investigates the relations among energy consumption,environmental pol-lution and economic growth in each region at provincial level of mainland China from the year of 2000 to 2012. The study finds that it has a significant spatial correlation of regional energy consumption,environmental pollution and economic growth in Chi-na, the spatial agglomeration distribution of economic growth rates in different provinces is obvious. During the research peri-od,we get that energy consumption and environmental pollution has a positive correlation with economic growth. Four types of spatial relations have impacts on economic growth and its spatial correlation, among them, the influence of geometry center distance is the most remarkable. All of the models show a positive correlation among regions,and the correlation of the effect of spatial fixed and time not fixed is the highest. Accordingly,the paper proposes that we should implement differentiated policies which are in conjunction with the inter-regional energy endowment,environmental constraints and other influencing factors to ensure the positive interaction and coordinated development of energy,environment and economy.