浙江省对外贸易与经济增长关系的协整分析

近几年来,浙江对外贸易增速全国领先,规模位居全国前列,贸易顺差更是连续多年名列全国第一。浙江对外贸易的快速发展对推动经济增长起到了十分重要的作用。本文根据协整理论,利用浙江省1981-2003年统计数据,对浙江对外贸易和经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:从长期看,浙江经济增长与出口、进口、消费、投资之间存在着长期稳定的关系,出口、消费和投资明显促进了经济增长,而进口对经济增长影响并不显著。从短期看,出口和进口共同对经济增长起促进作用。本文最后从宏观、中观和微观三个层面提出浙江对外贸易实现可持续发展的对策建议。

A Co-integration Analysis on the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Zhejiang Province

In recent years, Zhejiang province has been leading China in increasing rate and scale of foreign trade and even ranking first in favourable trade balance for a succession of years. The fast development of foreign trade in Zhejiang plays a very important role in promoting the economic growth. Based on the statistics of Zhejiang province in 1981-2003, and by using the co-integration theory, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between foreign trade and econom- ic growth, the result of which shows that: from the long-term perspective, there exists in Zhejiang province a long and stable relationship between economic growth and export, import, consumption and investment; export, consumption and investment promote economic growth obviously while im- port not so much. From the short-term perspective, import and export equally promote economic growth. Finally, this paper puts forward some advices on the sustainable development of foreign trade in Zhejiang province respectively on the macroscopic, intermediate and microcosmic levels.