退耕还林工程对农户生产要素投入与收入的影响——基于长期连续跟踪大样本农户数据

利用6省区、15县市、2707个样本农户1995—2016年连续跟踪调研数据,在充分考虑相关政策和市场因素等动态变化的基础上,定量估计退耕还林工程对农户生产要素投入的影响,采用递归方程模型估计了退耕还林工程对农户收入的直接影响(退耕还林补助与放弃的退耕地种植业收益之差)和间接影响(退耕还林工程引起生产要素配置调整带来的收入变化)。结果表明:第一,农户参与退耕还林使其耕地经营面积减少25.06%,林地经营面积增加57.88%,以土地为基础的生产费用减少11.41%,非农劳动力投入增加9.99%;退耕还林工程对样本农户以土地为基础的劳动力投入和种植业集约经营未产生显著影响。第二,退耕还林工程直接增加了样本农户3.73%的以土地为基础的收入,间接增加了8.57%的以土地为基础的收入和7.85%的非农收入。第三,相对于黄河流域,退耕还林工程对长江流域样本农户收入的直接影响较大,但间接影响较小。在退耕还林工程后续政策设计中,需充分重视退耕还林工程对农户生产要素投入和收入的影响及其路径,强化因地制宜的理念。

The Impact of the Sloping Land Conversion to Forest Program on Farmers' Input of Production Factors and Income: Based on Long-term Continuous Tracking of Large Sample Farmers' Data

Using the survey panel data of 2707 sample rural households in 15 counties of 6 provinces from 1995 to 2016 and fully considering the dynamic changes of relevant policies and market conditions,this paper analyzes and estimates the impact of the Sloping Land Conversion to Forest Program(the SLCP)on rural households'production factor allocation,and use the recursive equation model to analyze the direct impact(the difference between the subsidy of the SLCP and the opportunity cost for abandoning conversed farmland)and indirect impacts(the income change caused by the adjustment of the allocation of production factors caused by the SLCP)of the SLCP on rural households'income.The empirical results show that:due to the implementation of the SLCP,farmland area of sample rural households has decreased by 25.06%,forestland area has increased by 57.88%,land-based production expenditure has decreased by 11.41%,off-farm employment has increased by 9.99%,land-based labor input and the intensive management of cultivation have not changed significantly;the direct impact of the SLCP increased the sample rural households'land-based income by 3.73%,and the indirect impact increased land-based income and off-farm income by 8.57%and 7.85%;compared with the Yellow River Basin,the direct impact of the SLCP on the sample rural households'income in the Yangtze River Basin is bigger,while the indirect impact is smaller.Therefore,governmental agencies should focus on these impacts and its path of SLCP on rural households'production factor inputs and income,and some policy implications have been concluded to consolidate the performances of the SLCP.