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Optimal consumption and the timing of the resolution of uncertainty
Authors:Louis Eeckhoudt  Christian Gollier
Institution:a University of Mons, Mons, Belgium
b Catholic University of Lille, Lille, France
c LEERNA-INRA, IDEI, University of Toulouse, Toulouse, France
d LEERNA-INRA, University of Toulouse, Manufacture des Tabacs, 21 all. de Brienne, Toulouse 31042, France
Abstract:As is well-known, consumers want to accumulate precautionary savings in the face of income risks when their marginal utility is convex (prudence). In this paper, we explore the effect of the timing of the resolution of income uncertainty on savings. An agent faces uncertainty about his income at date t+2. What is the effect of being informed that the uncertainty will be resolved at date t+1 on the consumption at date t? We show that the effect is positive, if and only if, marginal utility is convex (prudence), when either the risk free rate is equal to the rate of pure preference for the present, or when the utility function is HARA. The intuition is that an early resolution of uncertainty allows for time-diversifying the risk. It therefore plays a role similar to a reduction of the income risk, whose effect on savings is negative under prudence.
Keywords:D81  D91  E21
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