How do inputs and weather drive wheat yield volatility? The example of Germany |
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| Institution: | 1. Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Department of Economics, Universitätsring 3, D-06108 Halle, Germany;2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A62/2.01, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany;3. University of Rostock, Agricultural Economics, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 7, D-18059 Rostock, Germany;1. INRA, CODIR Agriculture, 147 rue de l’Université, 75338 Paris Cedex, France;2. Agrosolutions, 83 avenue de la Grande Armée, 75116 Paris, France;3. University of Poitiers, PRES France Centre Atlantique Université, 15 rue de l’Hôtel Dieu, 86 073 Poitiers, France;1. Institute of Agricultural Economics Belgrade, Volgina 15, Belgrade, 11000, Serbia;2. Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade, Zmaj Jovina 12, Belgrade, 11000, Serbia;1. UMR 211 Agronomie INRA, Agroparistech, Université Paris-Saclay, 78850 Thiverval-Grignon, France;2. Agroscope, Institute for Sustainability Sciences ISS, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich, Switzerland;3. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Via E. Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA, Italy;1. ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Agricultural Economics Group, Zurich, Switzerland;2. University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics, Production Economics Group, Germany |
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| Abstract: | Increases in cereals production risk are commonly related to increases in weather risk. We analyze weather-induced changes in wheat yield volatility as a systemic weather risk in Germany. We disentangle, however, the relative impacts of inputs and weather on regional yield volatility. For this purpose we augment a production function with phenologically aggregated weather variables. Increasing volatility can be traced back to weather changes only in some regions. On average, inputs explain 49% of the total actual wheat yield volatility, while weather explains 43%. Models with only weather variables deliver biased but reasonable approximations for climate impact research. |
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| Keywords: | Yield Wheat Variability Risk Weather Common Agricultural Policy |
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