经济政策不确定性、FDI稳定性及研发投资密度 -基于资产专用性视角的研究

基于资产专用性衡量外商直接投资(FDI)异质性,在实物期权理论框架内探究经济政策确定性程度变化对FDI规模、稳定性及技术结构的影响机制,并采用制造业24行业外资企业数据进行验证。研究表明,经济政策确定性程度的下降对FDI规模存在抑制作用,并导致其高水平的波动,且受到资产专用性的正向调节。实证研究表明,2001年我国加入WTO后,可预期的政策环境中FDI呈现稳步增长态势;2008年金融危机后,政策不确定性的攀升引致制造业FDI增速下滑并伴随着波动性上升。进一步的研究发现,蕴含高水平资产专用性投资的研发密集型FDI对经济政策确定性程度更加敏感,一致、透明和可预期的政策环境的营造不但有利于提升FDI稳定度,对吸引高水平FDI更加具有针对性和有效性。

Economic policy uncertainty, FDI stability and R & D investment density -Research Based on the perspective of asset specificity

Based on asset specificity to measure the heterogeneity of FDI, this paper explores the influence mechanism of change of economic policy certainty on the scale, stability and technical structure of FDI in the framework of real option theory, and uses the data of 24 foreign-funded enterprises in manufacturing industry to verify. The research shows that the decline of the degree of economic policy certainty has a restraining effect on the scale of FDI, and leads to its high level of volatility, which is positively regulated by asset specificity. Empirical research shows that after China''s accession to the WTO in 2001, FDI in the predictable policy environment shows a steady growth trend; after the financial crisis in 2008, the rise of policy uncertainty leads to the decline of manufacturing FDI growth and the rise of volatility. Further research shows that R & D-intensive FDI with high-level asset specific investment is more sensitive to the degree of economic policy certainty. The creation of a consistent, transparent and predictable policy environment is not only conducive to improving the stability of FDI, but also more targeted and effective to attract high-level FDI.