产业结构升级、技术创新与碳排放 ——一个有调节的中介模型

碳减排是实现环境高质量发展的重要方面,产业结构升级和技术创新是影响碳排放的重要途径。基于一个有调节的中介模型,构建环境规制嵌入下产业结构升级、技术创新与碳排放关系的理论框架,分析并实证检验产业结构升级和技术创新对碳排放以及环境规制在三者间调节效应的作用机理。研究结果表明:产业结构升级和技术创新能显著减少碳排放;技术创新在产业结构升级对碳排放的影响中起部分中介作用;环境规制在产业结构升级对技术创新的影响以及技术创新对碳排放的影响中起显著的正向调节作用。

Upgrading Industrial Structure,Technological Innovation and Carbon Emission:A Moderated Mediation Model

Carbon emission reduction is an important aspect to achieve high-quality development of the environment, upgrading industrial structure and technological innovation are key ways to affect carbon emission. Based on a moderated mediation model, this paper builds a theoretical framework of the relationship among upgrading industrial structure, technological innovation and carbon emission under the embedding of environmental regulation, analyzes and empirically tests the mechanism of upgrading industrial structure and technological innovation on carbon emission and the moderating effect of environmental regulation among the three variables. The results show that: upgrading industrial structure and technological innovation can significantly reduce carbon emission.Technological innovation plays a partial mediating role in the impact of upgrading industrial structure on carbon emission.Environmental regulation plays a significant positive moderating role in the impact of upgrading industrial structure on technological innovation and the impact of technological innovation on carbon emission.