Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia |
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Authors: | Florian Mölders Ulrich Volz |
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Institution: | 1.DIW Berlin,Berlin,Germany;2.German Development Institute,Bonn,Germany |
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Abstract: | East Asia has been considered a latecomer with respect to Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Since the turn of the last century,
however, FTAs with East Asian participation have seen an intra- and extra-regional expansion. Many trade initiatives have
been proposed, negotiated or even implemented. This introduces interesting perspectives for the analysis of trade agreements
regarding their anticipatory trade effects. This paper focuses on the trade impact of FTAs at different stages that East Asian
economies participate in. The central part of this study is an econometric analysis that applies panel data to the gravity
model of international trade flows. We augment the traditional model with variables to estimate trade effects of bilateral
and multilateral agreements and year-to-year changes in the stages of their implementation. Our results reveal that there
exist anticipatory effects preceding the actual implementation of bilateral FTAs with East Asian participation. Further, anticipation
effects are larger for bilateral than for multilateral agreements, possibly because the realisation of bilateral agreements
is considered more realistic. |
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