“一带一路”沿线省域生产性服务业与制造业联动融合关系辨析

选择"一带一路"沿线18个省域生产性服务业与技术或资本密集型装备制造业动态互动关系为研究对象,运用向量自回归(VAR)模型进行4个细分服务业和装备制造业脉冲响应比较研究,探究其双向互促性、行业异质性及长短期差异性。结果表明:二者虽然有长期均衡关系,但是互促作用具有非对称性。装备制造业对生产性服务业发展的总体拉动力强劲。但无论辅助联动式或价值链嵌入式生产性服务,都只是短期助推装备制造业发展,仍难以构成高端服务能力和发挥显著的规模经济效应,其长期匹配及推动作用较小。长期以来,装备制造业对知识密集型服务业需求程度不高,导致装备制造业对其拉动作用不明显,二者互动关联性较弱。不同互动机理及动态匹配方式下细分服务业与装备制造业互动效应差异性显著。装备制造业来自于自身内部的信息变动影响显著。应加强装备制造业创新投资引资、提升装备制造业产业集群创新竞争力、促使生产性服务业高质量发展、提高高层次人才培养引进效率,以促进沿线省域两大产业高层级耦合互动发展。

Discrimination of Interaction and Fusion Relationship between Producer Service and Manufacturing Industry

The dynamic interaction of producer service industry,capital-intensive and science& technology-intensive equipment manufacturing industry in 18 provinces along the Belt and Road is studied. The VAR model is used in the comparative study on the impulse response of four subdivided service industries and equipment manufacturing industry in order to explore their two-way mutual promotion,industry heterogeneity,and differences between long-term and short-term. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two,but the interaction is asymmetric. The equipment manufacturing industry has a strong driving force. Whatever the type of productive services industry,the auxiliary linkage or the value chain embedded,they only boost the development of the equipment manufacturing industry in the short term,but still fail to constitute high-end service capacity and bring into play significant economies of scale. And any productive services industry only plays a small role in long-term matching and promotion. For a long time,the equipment manufacturing industry has a weak demand for knowledge-intensive service industry,which results in an insignificant driving effect of the equipment manufacturing industry on it and a weak correlation between the two. Under different interaction mechanisms and dynamic matching modes,the interaction effects of subdivided service industry and equipment manufacturing industry are significantly different. The change of information in the equipment manufacturing industry has a significant impact on its own development. In order to promote the coordinated and interactive development of the two major industries in the provinces and regions along the Belt and Road,it is necessary to strengthen the innovation investment in the equipment manufacturing industry,enhance the innovation competitiveness of the equipment manufacturing industry cluster,and enhance the introduction and training efficiency of high-level talents.