Declining Union Strength and Labor Cost Inflation in the 1980s

This paper explores the hypothesis that the declining strength of labor unions underlies the moderation of labor cost inflation in the 1980s, which is not explained by standard Phillips curve equations. Data on union density, union certification and decertification election results, and work stoppages are used as proxies for union strength. No support is found for the declining union strength hypothesis at either the aggregate level (using economywide or union-sector labor cost series) or the industry level.