中国进出口贸易的金融危机冲击效应——基于B-N数据分解的分析

基于2001年1月至2009年9月共105个月份的中国实际进出口贸易总额数据,运用Beveridge-Nelson(B-N)数据分解法对序列的确定性趋势项、周期项和随机冲击项进行了分解,分析了国际金融危机对我国进出口贸易总额的冲击效应,得出结论:第一,我国进出口贸易具有相对较强的抗干扰能力;第二,受外需下降等因素的影响,当前国际金融危机对我国进出口贸易的冲击程度相对较大;第三,我国进出口贸易受国际金融危机的冲击程度正在逐渐减弱,复苏迹象已渐渐显现。复苏后,外向依赖型的经济增长结构将发生较大改变,扩内需和调结构将带来新的经济增长点。

Impact Effect of Financial Crisis to China's Foreign Trade: Analysis Based on the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition

Based on the monthly data of China's foreign trade from January 2001 to September 2009,this paper decomposes determinant trend,cyclical and stochastical ones of the series of foreign trade with the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition method,and analyzes the impact effect of the international financial crisis on total volume of import and export trade of China.Some conclusions are drawn:(1) China's foreign trade has strong capacity of resisting disturbance;(2) the impact effect of the international financial crisis on China's foreign trade is stronger because of decreased overseas market demand;(3) the impact strength is gradually weakened and China's economy recovers step by step.After the recovery,the exportoriented economic growth structure will change significantly,and the expansion of domestic market demand and the adjustment of economic structure will bring about new economic growth point.