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Skill complementarities and returns to higher education: Evidence from college enrollment expansion in China
Institution:1. Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, United States;2. Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, United States;3. Department of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong;4. Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, China;5. China Enterprise and Survey Data Center, Institute of Quality Development Strategy, Wuhan University, China;6. Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong
Abstract:We find that the increased supply of college graduates resulting from college enrollment expansion in China increases college premiums for older cohorts and decreases college premiums for younger cohorts. This finding is inconsistent with the canonical model that assumes substitution among workers of different ages. We subsequently build a simple model that considers complementarities among workers of different ages and different skill levels. Our model predicts that the college premium of senior workers increases with the supply of young college graduates when skill is a scarce resource. The model's predictions are supported by empirical tests.
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