汇率变动、可耗竭资源和经济增长

本文基于贸易的视角,从理论和实证两方面分析了汇率变动、可耗竭资源与经济发展之间的关系.得出贸易传导机制下的"资源诅咒"在我国虽然存在不明显,这种局面到底能持续多久,在一定程度上依赖于我国资源的承受力和可持续性的结论.最后给出了从长远来看,人民币适度升值,可以化解"资源诅咒"的陷阱的建议.

Exchange Rate Change,Exhaustible Resource and Economic Growth

From view of foreign trade,this paper analyzes the relationship among exchange rate change,exhaustible resource and economic development by theoretic and empirical methods. It concludes that resource curse under the trade transmission mechanism exists in China,but it is not obvious. Finally,it suggeststhat resource curse trap could be avoided in the long run if RMB exchange rate appreciates.