人工智能技术会诱致劳动收入不平等吗——模型推演与分类评估

学术界近期开始关注人工智能技术对收入不平等的影响,但其收入分配效应的形成机理研究尚处于初始阶段,而且定量评估明显不足,尤其缺乏来自发展中国家的经验证据。本文基于Acemoglu and Restrepo(2018a)的人工智能技术模型,引入高技术与低技术两部门分类,推演人工智能技术的收入分配效应,结合中国2001—2016年全国及省级层面数据,分类测算其劳动收入分配的岗位更迭效应和生产率效应。结果发现:①人工智能技术在引发劳动岗位更迭的同时,非对称地改变不同技术部门生产率影响劳动收入分配,诱致高、低技术部门劳动收入差距年均扩大0.75%。②人工智能技术的岗位更迭效应倾向于在低技术部门通过自动化扩张、在高技术部门以新岗位创造方式,加剧收入不平等,而生产率效应存在门槛特征。③人工智能技术在资本和非技术密集型地区的收入分配效应更为突出,且对劳动和技术密集型地区的影响不断增大。为应对人工智能技术对劳动力市场就业结构和收入不平等的冲击,政府应健全就业培训和失业保障制度,制定差异化的区域政策,积极引导人工智能技术朝人机协作和收入平等方向发展。

Will Artificial Intelligence Technology Induce Labor Income Inequality--Model Deduction and Classification Evaluation

Academic circle focuses on the impact of artificial intelligence technology on income inequality,but the research on the micro-mechanism of the income distribution effect of artificial intelligence technology is in the initial stage and the quantitative assessment is obviously insufficient,especially lack of the empirical evidence from emerging economies.Based on the artificial intelligence technology model by Acemoglu and Restrepo(2018a),this paper classifies all sectors into high-and low-tech sectors,deduces the income distribution effect of artificial intelligence technology,and then combines China’s national and provincial data from 2001 to 2016 to separately measure the alternation effect and productivity effect of the labor income distribution.The results suggest that:①When artificial intelligence technology triggers jobs alternation,it will affect the labor income gap by asymmetrically changing the productivity of different technical sectors,which induces the labor income gap between high-and low-tech sectors to expand by 0.75%per year.②The alternation effect of artificial intelligence technology tends to increase income inequality through the automation expansion in the low-tech sector and the creation of new jobs in the high-tech sector,while the productivity effect has a threshold characteristic.③The income distribution effects of artificial intelligence technology in capital-and non-tech-intensive areas are more prominent,and the effects in labor-and tech-intensive areas have gradually increased.To cope with the impact of artificial intelligence technology on the employment structure and income inequality in the labor market,the government should improve employment training and unemployment protection system,formulate differentiated regional policies,and actively guide artificial intelligence to develop in the direction of human-machine collaboration and income equality.