FDI、出口贸易与经济增长的关系——基于VAR模型的实证研究

在开放经济条件下,外商直接投资（FDI）、出口贸易和经济增长的关系一直是国内外学者研究的热点。运用向量自回归（VAR）模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等计量经济学方法,采用1997年至2013年的所有季度数据,对FDI、出口贸易与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究,得出外商直接投资、出口贸易对我国经济增长具有显著的促进作用的结论,因此,今后我国应进一步加强对FDI的产业导向,积极优化外贸环境、改善外贸结构以引进外商直接投资。

The Relationship of FDI,Export Trade and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study based on VAR Model

The relationship of FDI, export trade and economic growth under the condition of open economy has been a hot research topic among scholars both at home and abroad. In this paper the author uses some econometric methods such as VAR model, impulse response function, variance decomposition and so on to carry out an empirical study on the relationship between FDI, export trade and economic growth based on the quarterly data from 1997 to 2013, concluding that FDI and export trade have obvious positive influence on our country＇s economic growth. Therefore, it suggests that China should further strengthen the industry guidance on FDI, actively optimize the environment of export trade, improve export structure so as to attract more FDI.