稳定国际货币体系

本文着重研究60年代的国际货币体系与当今盛行的国际货币体系之间的差异。60年代，美元是主要的储备货币，倘若政府不希望持有美元，唯一的选择便是从美国财政部购入黄金。今天，他们则可以以美元换手欧元。他们可能继续购入美元以避免其本国货币升值，但随即他们又会在外汇市场上出售美元，换回欧元。于是欧元汇率上升，由于外国对美国政府债务持有需求的降低，美元利率将会迅速上调。为避免上述情形的发生，下列两种创新方法可资借鉴：欧洲中央银行可创设一特别便利设施（a special facility）以满足人们对欧元的这种需求；中央银行把非意愿持有的美元存放于基金组织所管理倡导的便利设施中。建议一赋予了欧元主要国际储备货币的角色；建议二则将这一角色功能定位在特别提款权身上。它同时将避免日后美元与欧元货币问转换所造成的不稳定。

On Stability of International Monetary System

This paper lays emphasis on the study of the differences between the international monetary system of the 1960s and the present prevailing monetary system. In the 1960s the US dollar was a main reserve currency. When a government did not wish to hold it, its only choice was to purchase gold from the US Department of the Treasury. Today, it can exchange US dollars for euros, which may cause a rise of euro exchange rate. As the fall of the foreign demand to hold the US government debts arises, the interest rate of the US dollars soon rises rapidly. To avoid that, here are two methods for reference, one is that European Central Bank can set up a special facility to meet the needs for euros; the other is that European Central Bank puts unwillingly-held US dollars in the special facility managed and supported by some monetary fund. The former one endows euros with the role of international reserve currency; while the latter one endows the role with SDR. Meanwhile, it avoids instability caused by the exchange between US dollars and euros.