Japanese industrial development Lessons for South Africa?

This paper is critical of the scenario planning approach which attempts to offer a formula for development for South Africa in the 1990s based upon the success of Japan, amongst other economic ‘winners’. It is argued that the complexities and debates surrounding Japanese modernization make the application of ‘lessons’ extremely problematical. Points of controversy arising out of the two ‘miracle’ periods of Japanese economic growth, the Meiji era of the nineteenth century and post World War Two era, are examined in some detail. The Tokugawa legacy, Japanese ethics and in particular Confucianism, capital formation and investment spurts, the agricultural contribution, militarism and economic gains from warfare, the role of the state, the zalbatsu and business structures, dualism, labour supplies, export performance and finally education are all factors central to the debate on causes of economic growth in Japan. The paper concludes with some suggestive and very tentative ideas about ‘lessons’ for South Africa.