数字普惠金融与制造业升级：影响机制与经验证据

基于2011-2020年省级面板数据，采用系统GMM方法和中介效应模型，考察数字普惠金融对制造业升级的影响，同时检验技术创新、人力资本和消费升级在数字普惠金融影响制造业升级过程中的传导作用机制。结果表明：数字普惠金融的发展能够显著促进制造业升级；技术创新、人力资本和消费升级具有一定的传导作用，但均表现为遮掩效应。鉴于此，要进一步完善数字普惠金融体系、技术创新服务机制、培养高层次产业人才、刺激消费等，发挥数字普惠金融对制造业升级的促进作用。

Digital Financial Inclusion and Manufacturing Upgrading: Theoretical Mechanisms and Empirical Evidence

Based on the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020, the systematic GMM method and the mediating effect model were used to investigate the impact of digital financial inclusion on manufacturing upgrading, and to test the transmission mechanism of technological innovation, human capital and consumption upgrading in the process of digital financial inclusion affecting manufacturing upgrading. The results show that the development of digital financial inclusion can significantly promote the upgrading of manufacturing industry; Technological innovation, human capital and consumption upgrading have a certain transmission effect, but they all show a hiding effect. In view of this, it is necessary to further improve the digital financial inclusion system, technological innovation service mechanism, cultivate high-level industrial talents, stimulate consumption, etc., and give full play to the promoting role of digital financial inclusion in the upgrading of manufacturing industry.