基于区域发展规划的嵩明县水资源供需平衡预测

区域发展规划是需水预测的依据,而水资源供需平衡分析是检验区域发展规划是否合理可行的重要手段。本文以嵩明县水资源开发利用规划和社会经济发展规划为基础,进行可供水量、需水量和耗水量预测及供需平衡分析。结果表明:嵩明县需水量呈增加趋势,但耗水量呈减少趋势;按平水年需新水量计算,现状年(2012)和远期规划水平年(2030)需水量略超出可供水量,而近期(2020)和中期(2025)规划水平年可供水量大于需水量,而按P=75%需新水量计算则各水平年均有不同程度的缺水;各水平年耗水量均小于可供水量,说明在充分考虑水资源二次利用的情况下,可供水量均能够支撑规划的社会经济发展规模和水平。在落实规划用水效率前提下,嵩明县社会经济发展规划与水资源开发利用规划基本相适应。

Prediction of water resources supply and demand balance in Songming county based on regional development plan

Regional development plan is the basis of water demand prediction.The balance analysis of supply and demand of water resources is an important mean to test whether the regional development planning is feasible .Based on the development and utilization plan of water resources and social economy development planning in Songming county, the paper analyzed water supply, water demand,and water supply and demand balance. The results show that water demand presents a trend of increase,but water consume shows a trend of decrease;according to the calculation of new water demand in flat water year,the amount of water demand is slightly more than the amount of water supply in 2012 and 2030.However, the amount of water demand is less than the amount of water supply in 2020 and 2025,but in accordance with P=75% required to calculate new water demand, every level year has different degrees short of water resources;water consumption is less than water supply in each year which indicates the amount of water supply is completely capable of supporting the scale and level of social economy development planning under the full consideration of the secondary utilization of water resources. In the implementation of planning water-use efficiency, the social economy development planning is adaptable to the utilization of water resources planning in Songming county.