供给侧改革中的人力资本结构优化研究

本文用受教育水平的差异来表示人力资本的结构。利用2004～2014年中国省级区域的数据，依次对每一年影响经济增长的人力资本和物质资本数据进行逐步回归。结果表明，教育水平不同的人力资本对经济增长的作用是不同的。2009年之前，高中学历人力资本是模型中解释度较好的人力资本。从2009年开始，对经济增长起明显促进作用的是大专及以上学历人力资本。在大专及以上学历人力资本成为经济增长的主要人力资本动力的同时，物质资本对经济增长的重要性在降低。对2009年之后的数据进行Malmquist指数测算，发现部分省级区域的全要素生产率有所下降。不同省级区域根据自身情况进行人力资本的结构优化。

Optimization on Human Capital Structure in Supply Side Reform

The paper represents the structure of human capital with different educational level . Selecting the data of the provinces in China from 2004 to 2014 , we do stepwise regression with the data of economic growth , fixed assets and human capital . The results show that the roles of different human capital in economic growth are different . Before 2009 , the high school level human capital explains the model well . From 2009 , the economic growth has been significantly promoted by the human capital at college and above degree . The im-portance of material capital to economic growth decreased . The college or above degree human capital has become the main human capital driving force of economic growth . The Malmquist index is calculated by data after 2009 . Regional total factor productivity has declined in some parts of the provinces . Structure optimization of human capital should be done based on its own situation in different provincial re-gions .