城镇化、能源消费与工业全要素能源效率——基于非线性平滑转换回归模型的分析

本文在标准平滑转换模型的基础上引入转换参数，利用2000～2014年间中国工业层面的数据估计了城镇化、能源消费对工业全要素能源效率的效应。研究发现：当能源消费系数高于0.0587时，城镇化、能源消费对工业全要素能源效率之间表现出显著的非线性变化。城镇化率每提高1%，会导致工业全要素能源效率提高7.5667%；而能源消费每提高1%，则会导致工业全要素能源效率提高1.2132%。进一步纳入城乡收入差距因素后，上述结论依然成立。本文的结论具有深刻的政策含义：只有积极推进城镇化战略，善于利用城镇化效应释放新的制度红利，才是中国经济实现可持续发展的必由之路。

Urbanization,Energy Consumption and Industrial Total Factor Energy Efficiency---Analysis Based on Nonlinear Smooth Transition Regression Model

〔Abstract〕 Based on the standard smooth transition model , the conversion parameters are introduced , and the effects of urbanization and energy consumption on the total factor energy efficiency are estimated using the data from China's industrial level during the period of 2000-2014 . The study finds that:when the energy consumption coefficient is higher than 0.0587 , the urbanization , energy consumption of industrial total factor energy efficiency shows a significant nonlinear change . Urbanization rate increased by 1% , will lead to total factor energy efficiency of industrial energy efficiency increased by 7.5667% ;while energy consumption increased by 1% , which will lead to the total factor energy efficiency of industrial energy efficiency increased by 1.2132% . Further into the urban-rural income gap , the above conclusions are still set up . The conclusion of this paper has profound policy implications:only actively promote the urbanization strategy , and good at using the urbanization effect of the release of the new system bonus , is the only way to achieve sustainable development of China's economy .