经济增长、能源结构与工业污染——基于空间面板计量实证研究

本文基于环境EKC曲线理论，采用2002～2013年中国31个省际的面板数据，运用空间数据分析方法对经济增长、能源结构与工业污染的空间分布格局相关性进行研究。进一步运用空间计量方法，研究经济增长、能源结构对工业污染的空间效应。研究结果发现：经济增长、能源结构与工业污染存在空间相关性，并在空间分布上存在明显的“路径依赖”特征并形成了不同集聚区域。经济增长、能源结构对工业污染的空间影响效应明显，经济增长与工业污染呈现EKC曲线假设的倒“U”形关系，能源结构与工业污染呈现正向相关关系。最后在实证结果的基础上提出相关建议。

Economic Growth,Energy Structure and Industrial Pollution---Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Panel Metering

According to the theory of environmental EKC curve , this article adopts 31 provincial panel data in China from 2002 to 2013 , using spatial data analysis methods to study economic growth , energy structure and industrial pollution’s spatial distribution pattern correlation . It uses space measurement methods to study economic growth , energy structure and industrial pollution’s spatial effects . The results show that economic growth , energy structure and industrial pollution have spatial correlation , and there is a clear “path depen-dence” feature on the spatial distribution and the formation of a different cluster area . Economic growth , the energy mix of industrial pollu-tion space effects , economic growth and industrial pollution rendering of EKC hypothesis of inverted “U” shaped relationship , and the en-ergy structure and industrial pollution have a positive correlation . Finally , we put some suggestions on the basis of empirical results .