能源与产业结构调整下我国工业碳排放峰值调节机制研究

随着工业化和城市化进程的加快，我国碳减排压力与日俱增。当前我国碳排放主要呈现以工业碳排放为主、西部地区工业碳排放增长速度最快、第三产业的碳减排效果优于第二产业的特点。文章通过构建工业碳排放峰值LEAP模型，设置基准情形（BAU）和结构调整情景（SA），并将产业和能源结构设置为高、低模式两种情景，分析我国工业排放峰值调节机制。研究结论为：（1）我国工业碳排放量在2035年达到峰值，未来工业碳排放量呈现倒U型变化趋势。（2）产业结构调整能够有效降低我国的工业碳排放峰值，但对峰值出现的时间不影响。（3）能源结构调整对降低工业碳排放量具有显著效果且对第二产业影响效果最为显著；能源结构调整对工业碳排放量峰值时间也没有影响。

Research on the Peak Regulation Mechanism of Industrial Carbon Emission in China under the Adjustment of Energy and Industrial Structure

With the accelerated process of industrialization and urbanization , the pressure of carbon emission reduction in our coun-try is increasing day by day . At present , China’s carbon emissions mainly show industrial carbon emissions , the western region of the fastest growing industrial carbon emissions , the third industry’s carbon emission reduction effect is better than the characteristics of the sec-ond industry . This paper constructs the to peak leap model of industrial carbon emissions , set the baseline scenario (BAU ) and structural adjustment scenario (SA ) , and industrial and energy structure setting for high and low mode two scenarios , and analyzes China’s industrial carbon emissions peak regulation mechanism . The conclusions are as follows :(1 ) the industrial carbon emissions in China reaches a peak in 2035 , and the future industrial carbon emissions show a trend of inverted U type ;(2 ) industrial structure adjustment can effectively re-duce China’s industrial carbon emissions peak , but the peak time does not affect the time ;(3 ) energy structure adjustment has a signifi-cant effect on reducing industrial carbon emissions and the most significant impact on the second industry ;energy structure adjustment has no impact on industrial carbon emissions peak time .