农村居民消费缘何不足——基于消费过度敏感性假说的分析

本文结合经典的心理经验法则与LC-PIH模型,阐释了消费过度敏感性的内涵。运用可变参数模型对我国农村居民消费的过度敏感性进行检验,运用Granger因果检验分析引起这种消费变化行为的原因。实证结果显示:我国农村居民消费存在过度敏感性,农村居民消费对当期收入的依赖程度较高;宏观经济的变化所引起对未来收入及生存状况的不确定性是造成农村居民消费对当期收入的依赖程度较高的重要原因;利率也是从中长期影响农村居民消费变化的因素。

The Reasons of the Insufficient Consumption in Rural Residents:Based on the Excess Sensitivity Hypothesis's Analysis

Based on the classic psychological rule of thumb with LC-PIH model,we explain the excess sensitivity of consumption.We test the transition of China's rural household consumption's sensitivity by variable-parameter model and analysis the reason of these changes by Granger causality tests.We find that:there is excessive sensitivity of rural residents' consumption.The rural residents depend on the current income in a higher degree;macro-economic changes arising from the income and living conditions' uncertaint...