A model for analyzing the external effects of new towns on regional development

Title VII of the New Communities and Urban Growth Act of 1970 enables the Department of Housing and Urban Development to guarantee bonds used to finance New Town development by the private sector. Large scale New Town development may drastically affect regional land use patterns. New Towns may siphon resources away from central cities, reducing their tax base, increasing their ghettos and accelerate urban decay. The model proposed in this paper is designed to analyze the effect of subsidized New Towns on a region's growth. The output of the model would enable the policy makers to expand their decision horizon in evaluating bond guarantee applications. The model is composed of four integrated submodels; a national dynamic input-output model, an interregional forecasting model, a Lowry type land use model and a financial evaluation model.