External Influences on Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area |
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Authors: | Jason Jones Nora Collins Lauren Sribnick |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Economics, Furman University, 3300 Poinsett Highway, Greenville, SC 29613, USA;(2) Furman University, 3300 Poinsett Highway, Greenville, SC 29613, USA |
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Abstract: | Most studies of business cycle synchronization in the EMU identify a core set of counties with high synchronization and a
periphery set of countries with low synchronization. Using a structural VAR with model uncertainty, we identify spillover
effects from shocks that originate in the United States, the EMU, and the rest of the world to test whether external influences
can explain the existence of the core and periphery. Most countries typically found in the core respond to external spillovers
in similar ways, leading to more synchronized business cycles. The response to external influences in the countries traditionally
found in the periphery, on the other hand, help explain their exclusion from the core. |
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Keywords: | |
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