商业银行税负、信贷规模与宏观经济波动——基于面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型分析

商业银行是经济活动的金融中介，是宏观经济波动的重要来源。通过构建面板向量自回归(panel vector autoregression, PVAR)模型考察商业银行税负对宏观经济的影响及传导路径，研究表明，商业银行税负显著降低了信贷规模，对经济波动的直接冲击效应显著且存在一定滞后性。同时，信贷渠道会放大商业银行税负对经济波动的影响，该冲击效应要远大于银行税负的直接冲击效应。在结构性减税背景下，应进一步降低商业银行总体税负、强化税收政策逆周期调节作用、充分释放税收“红利”,从而降低经济波动带来的不确定性风险。

The Tax Burden, Credit Scale, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations of Commercial Banks：Based on the Panel Vector

Commercial banks serve as financial intermediaries in economic activities and are important sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. The impact and transmission channels of the tax burden of commercial banks on the macroeconomy by constructing a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model were examined. The study shows that the tax burden of commercial banks significantly reduces the credit scale and has a significant direct impact on economic fluctuations with certain time lags. Moreover, the credit channel amplifies the impact of the tax burden of commercial banks on economic fluctuations, which is far greater than the direct impact of bank taxes. In the context of structural tax reduction in China, it is necessary to further reduce the overall tax burden of commercial banks, strengthen the countercyclical role of tax policies, fully unleash the “tax dividend,” and thus reduce the uncertainty risks brought by economic fluctuations.