Short and long run movements in U.S. merger activity

This paper uses the NPV approach to merger decisions to select variables which are expected to explain changes in the aggregate number of mergers of US manufacturing and mining firms over time. We test for and estimate a cointegrating relationship between such variables. We find that in the long run the number of mergers and acquisitions is positively related both to the level of manufacturing production and to the level of the nominal bond yield. A short run dynamic model is also presented. Annual changes in merger and acquisition activity were found to be positively related to current changes in Tobin's Q and changes in Q lagged one, two and four years; positively related to changes in the current bond yield but negatively related to changes in the yield in the previous year; and finally that changes in merger activity were related to the degree to which the number of mergers differed from the long run or equilibrium value in the previous year.