财政支持"三农"政策效应的CGE模拟分析

文章在对CGE模型基本原理进行简要说明的基础上,介绍了一个“八部门财政CGE模型”,并利用该模型对2006年中央财政支持三农政策的效应进行模拟分析。结果表明:(1)中央财政支持“三农”政策在提高农民收入、减缓城乡收入差距扩大方面有着较为明显的效果;(2)农民收入提高间接拉动了消费的增长,对调整投资与消费比例能起到较好的推动作用,并促进整个国民经济的平稳增长;(3)支持“三农”的财政政策并不能从根本上改变城乡居民收入差距扩大的基本格局,最终的出路还是应该在于:加快农村产业结构升级,转移农村剩余劳动力,提高农村劳动生产率。

An Analysis on Fiscal Support for Agriculture-related Problems by CGE model

Based on the brief review on the principle of CGE,an eight-sector fiscal CGE model was illustrated.With this model,a simulation was implemented to analyze the policy effects of fiscal support for agriculture-related problems.It is argued that:(1) the fiscal support of central government has brought a fairly good effect on improving the income of rural households and slowing down the expansion of rural-urban disparity;(2) the increasing of income might stimulate consumption,coordinate the consumption and investment ratio,and eventually promote the stable growth of national economy;(3) However, the fiscal support for agriculture-related problems can not reverse the expansion of rural-urban disparity.The ultimate way lies on the upgrading of industrial structure and transferring of surplus labor force in rural areas.