FDI与生产率增长不确定性:国外研究进展

理论研究认为国际贸易和FDI可以通过示范/模仿、劳动力流动、出口、竞争,以及MNEs与东道国企业之间前向和后向关联等五种渠道产生生产率外溢效应,而技术差距及东道国吸收能力、区域效应、东道国企业特征、FDI特性和经济发展水平等又是影响是否有外溢效应及效应大小的几类典型因素。问题是在这些渠道中发挥作用的因素及因素之间的影响方向此消彼长,使得总体效应具有明显地不确定性,理论模型也因此从一般均衡分析向局部均衡分析发展,但一般性外溢机制仍然是未解之谜。因此,更加微观的行业、地区分析和实证检验或许才是未来的方向。

The Uncertain Relationship Between FDI and Increase of Productivity:Progress in Overseas Study

Many theoretical studies has deemed that international trade and FDI could make technologic spillover to host firms through five channels,such as demonstrated/imitation,labor mobility,export,compete,and some forward/backward linkage between MNCs and host firms etc.,while there are a lot of factors which can affect the size of spillover effect,such as technologic gap between MNCs and host firms,regional effect,the characteristics of host firms,natures of FDI,and the level of a nation′s economic development,etc.It is the key problem that the gross effect is uncertain because the directions of effect of these factors are different,even opposite.Now,theoretical study has turned from general equilibrium analysis to spatial equilibrium analysis,but the generalized spillover mechanism is also unsolved mystery.More micro-industry and region and empirical analysis might be the future direction of study.