天津粮食生产变化特征分析

天津是粮食主消费区,粮食安全主要取决于国家粮食安全水平,其对粮食总产波动更为敏感。该文根据1978～2008年天津粮食总产资料,分析了近30年天津粮食产量变化特征及其对我国粮食波动的影响,并研究了影响粮食波动的主要因子。研究结果表明:天津粮食总产逐步提高,但年际间有明显的波动,其粮食总产波动对我国粮食总产波动的影响趋于增强。粮食单产对总产平均年际波动的影响大,其作用约占总产平均年际波动的60%,播种面积作用相对较小但趋于增强。粮食单产波动受气候波动的影响明显,其作用约占单产平均年际波动的45%。

The Variation Features of Grain Yield in Tianjin

Tianjin City is one of the major food consume regions in China,and the food security of Tianjin depends on the level of China.So the degree of sensitivity of food security of Tianjin is higher than the major grain production region.Based on the grain yield data of Tianjin from 1978 to 2008,the variation features of grain yield of Tianjin in recent 30 years and the relationships between the variation features of grain yield of Tianjin were analyzed.The results showed that the grain yield in Tianjin had been increasing from 1978 to 2008 although with an annual fluctuation.And the influence of variation of grain yield of Tianjin on the variation of China had increased gradually.The grain yield per unit area was a main factor influencing variation of grain yield,which occupied about 60% of contribution,while the influence of sown area on the variation of grain yield was small but becoming stronger.The 45% of variation of grain yield per unit was mainly resulted from the annually climatic variations.