投资增长加重了中国工业二氧化硫的排放吗——基于空间面板模型的总量判断与结构比较

以2004-2013年中国境内31个省市区为样本,运用空间面板模型实证分析投资总量增长及结构差异对工业二氧化硫(SO₂)排放的影响,以研究投资增长是否加重了中国的排污负担。研究发现,工业SO₂排放存在省际空间溢出效应并在部分地区形成了"高-高"聚集区域。从总量角度看,工业SO₂排放与固定资产投资之间呈现显著的"倒U"型关系。从结构角度看,地方投资对工业SO₂排放具有更加显著的影响;国有投资和非国有投资虽然表面上对工业SO₂排放的影响并无显著差异,但对于特定的高排放行业,非国有投资依然是造成排放增长的主要因素;不同规模的投资项目对工业SO₂排放的影响没有显著差异,并与细分行业分布情况无关;新建项目固定资产投资是影响工业SO₂排放的主因,增加更新改造投资不会对排放产生显著作用。

Can Investment Growth Increase the Industrial SO2 Discharge-An Overall Judgment and Structural Compare Based on Spatial Panel Model

For verifying if the investment increased pollution discharge load, according to a spatial panel model, the article focuses on the empirical analysis about the effect of the total investment growth and structure difference to the industrial SO₂ emissions in China's 31 provinces from 2004 to 2013. The article finds the industrial SO₂ emissions have a significant spatial spillover among the inter-provinces and also form a "high-high" agglomeration in some regions. From the overall views, there is a significant inverse "U" relationship between industrial SO₂ emissions and total investment. From the structural views, the local investment has a significant influence to emissions. For the given high discharge industry, non-state-owned investment is the primary cause leading to the emissions, even though there are no difference between the state-owned and non-state-owned investment superficially. The different scale of investment has a similar effect to industrial SO₂ emissions and also nothing to do with the segmented industry. The expansion and reconstruction project is nearly unrelated to industrial SO₂ emissions, and the key factor is mainly from the new construction project.