实物期权方法在BOT公路投资项目中的应用

投资项目具有多种期权特性,传统的DCF评价方法无法评估多个不确定性对投资项目的影响。实物期权方法为决策者提供了一个有效管理不确定性因素的工具。国内外学者就BOT公路投资项目中的增长期权、延迟期权、投资扩张、政府保证、特许权期限调整、通行费率调整、投资成本和车流量不确定性等多个问题进行了大量的讨论。本文首先对实物期权理论在BOT公路投资项目方面的应用研究进行文献回顾,然后详细的分析了国内BOT公路投资项目收益的不确定性、项目投资的可延迟性、项目的可扩建性、政府的保证以及项目特有的土地开发及广告收益等多个特点具有的期权价值。并对这些期权的定价模型进行了简要的介绍。文章最后对运用实物期权理论应用过程中的难点进行了分析,并在此基础上总结实物期权理论在BOT公路投资项目中应用的研究方向。

Reviews on Application Research of the Real Options Approach in BOT Highway Investment Projects

Investment project have a variety of options properties. The traditional DCF methods can not evaluate the project value influenced by several uncertainty factors. Real options approach for decision-makers is an effective tool for managing uncertainty. Domestic and foreign scholars make a lot of discussion about the real option value of the BOT highway projects：growth Option,option to Defer,option to Expand,government guarantee,adjustment of the concession period,adjustment of the access rates,investment costs and the uncertainty of traffic flow. This paper firstly reviewed the research of the real options approach in BOT highway investment projects. Secondly we analysis the internal BOT highway investment project＇s income is uncertainly; the project investments can be delayed; the projects can be expanded. The project may also have the nature of the government guarantee,the nature of the land development or advertising revenues. These nature means the project owns different option values. We also introduce briefly the option pricing model.Finally we discussed the difficulties of the real options analytical method. Based the above analysis,we point out the direction of the real options approach in BOT highway investment projects.