上市公司净利润和现金流量盈余管理的实证分析

本文通过对沪深两市制造业上市公司2000年至2004年期间,净利润指标(ROA)和经营产生的现金流量净额指标(CFOA)的实证分析,发现亏损上市公司对经营产生的现金流量净额进行操纵的概率要远远低于对净利润的操纵。主要通过操纵营业外收支、投资收益、筹资费用、减值准备、待摊费用等项目实施盈余管理。笔者认为:选择经营产生的现金流量净额指标作为主导指标,结合净利润指标,对上市公司进行监管和评价,能够客观地反映企业的真实财务状况。

Empirical Analysis on Manipulation of Net Earnings and Cash Flows by Listed Companies

The writer of this article compares ROA(Returns on Assets) with CFOA(Cash Flows on Assets) of the manufacturing listed companies during the period from year 2000 to 2004. Based on this empirical research, the writer finds that the probability of manipulating cash flow is far less than that of manipulating net earnings. The listed companies that have negative earnings tend to use such items as non-operational income, investment earnings, finance fees and allowances to manipulate earnings. The writer suggests that the regulators use cash flow as main indicators to supervise listed companies.