财务危机发生概率的Logit模型置信区间

介绍了利用Logit模型度量单个公司发生财务危机概率的方法,提出了可以控制Logit模型定义的点估计的置信区间。通过选择财务会计变量的独立向量X,譬如流动比率和资产负责率等确定置信区间,以了解预测公司发生财务危机概率的统计量,得出了在财务危机发生前1至3年模型的预测结果。

Logit model confidence intervals for controlling probability of financial crisis

This paper introduces the methods of estimating the probability of financial crisis using Logit model.The purpose of this study is to provide confidence intervals that control point estimators for the probability of financial crisis defined by Logic model for each firm.Confidence intervals are determined by selecting a vector of independent financial accounting variables such as the current ratio and debt to total assets.The statistical control of estimated probability of corporate financial crisis is useful for users of financial accounting information.The study also suggests some financial schemes for managing and regulating liquidity,financial leverage,and profitability.The results are robust for three,two,and one year prior to financial crisis