ON MEASURING THE EFFECT OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY ON REAL GNP GROWTH

In this paper we re-examine the relationship between inflationuncertainty and total output. To properly specify an estimatingequation, we investigate the time series properties of two frequentlyused measures of inflation uncertainty. We fail to reject thehypothysis that each series has a unit root. However, the uncertaintymeasures are not cointegrated with output and relative oil prices.This means that the proper specification is in terms of differences.With this specification we find that an increase in inflationuncertainty growth reduces real GNP growth but, unlike earlierwork, we find that this effect is temporary. It is also unlikelythat an inflation uncertainty shock on its own could producea recession.