1981-2002年间国际金融组织贷款对中国经济增长的贡献研究

改革开放以来,国际金融组织贷款一直是我国对外借款的重要来源,其所占比例始终维持在40%左右,累计金额已达数百亿美元.这些贷款对中国经济增长的影响如何,这方面的研究十分少见.本文以柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的派生模型为基础建立了修正模型,分别利用1978年以来的国家和省级两层数据,对上述问题作了一个尝试性的评价.我们的计量分析结果表明,在1990年前后,国际金融组织贷款对中国经济增长的贡献存在差异.对不同地区的增长贡献也差异较大,表明不同的政策环境与援助性贷款的相互作用结果是不同的.

Does Loan from International Financial Institutions Positively Impact on China: an Empirical Analysis

Since 1978, loans from international financial institutions have accumulated to several tens of billion dollars and been an important source of external debt in China. Its ratio to external debt is relatively stable around 40 percent. Research on how these loans contribute to China's economic growth is rare. This paper tries to establish an econometric model derived from Cobb-Douglas production function and to answer the above question using national and provincial data from 1978, respectively. Our econometric analysis indicates that effect of loans from international financial institutions like World Bank on Chinese economic growth is different between pre-1990 and post-1990. Growth contribution to different regions also differs, which indicates that interaction between policy and foreign aid can lead to significantly different results.