货币政策地区效应——基于地区总供给曲线的理论与实证分析

本文着重检验了我国区域经济中的基于产出缺口的地区短期总供给曲线的存在性,进而分析地区短期总供给曲线对货币政策地区效应的影响。文章首先对地区短期总供给曲线存在的可能性进行了理论解释,应用卡尔曼滤波方法估算了我国各地区的产出缺口,然后运用ARMA模型说明预期通货膨胀率形成机制,最后以通货膨胀率与其预期之差、外部需求冲击等作为解释变量对产出缺口进行回归,结果发现,我国东部地区的短期总供给曲线较中西部地区的短期总供给曲线更平坦,因而东部地区货币政策效应要强于中西部地区。

A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the Regional Effects of Monetary Policy: A Case Study of the Theory of the Aggregate Supply Curve

This article mainly testifies the existence of regional short - run aggregate supply curve based on the output gap and makes a further analysis of the regional effects of monetary policy on the short - run aggregate supply curve concerned. First, it makes a theoretical illustration of the existence of regional short - run aggregate supply curve. Then, it estimates the output gap by Kalman filter. Next, it expounds the inflation forming mechanism by ARMA model. Finally, it regresses the output gap as the explained variable by inflation rate and the outer demand impacts. We find that the short - run aggregate supply curve of the eastern region is flatter than that of mid - western region, which in turn leads to the conclusion that the effects of the monetary policy work more strongly in the eastern region than in the mid - western region.