外商直接投资流动对我国就业结构的动态效应——基于VAR模型和脉冲响应的实证检验

基于VAR模型的理论基础,本文运用协整分析和误差修正(VEC)模型,通过脉冲响应分析方法,实证研究FDI流动对我国区域就业的不均衡影响,旨在揭示FDI对区域就业动态作用的路径变化。结果表明:FDI与三大区域就业人数之间存在长期协整关系。FDI流入对东部地区的就业效应为负,对中西部地区的就业效应为正;FDI流出对中部的就业效应为正,对东西部的就业效应为负;总体上,FDI流动的就业负效应明显;FDI的区域就业效应具有滞后性,且长期吸纳效应和短期挤出效应并存,对东部地区和中部地区的动态冲击效应显著。

Dynamic Impact of FDI Flowing on Employment Structure of China:An Empirical Study based on VAR Model and Impulse Response

Based on the theory of VAR model,the paper aims to research the impact of FDI flowing on China regional employment by applying Co-integration analysis,VEC model and impulse response analysis.The purpose of this paper is to show the dynamics path of FDI on regional employment.The result of empirical study indicates that there is Co-integration relationship between FDI and three regions.FDI inflows has negative effect on eastern regions and positive effect on middle and western regions,while FDI outflow has positive effect on middle regions and negative effect on eastern and western regions.On the whole,the negative effect is more significant.Regional employment effect of FDI is lagged,the long-term absorbing effect and short-term crowding-out effect are coexistence,and it is more significant in eastern and middle regions.