基于Logistic模型的我国房地产开发投资压力测试研究

对我国房地产开发投资风险进行压力测试分析,考虑房地产开发投资的地域性差异,选取三个代表地区——上海、辽宁和贵州,首先分析影响房地产投资的风险因素,然后运用Logistic回归模型建立该地区的房地产投资风险评价模型,确定重要影响因素,设定"异常"情景,最后测试房地产业的抗压能力。研究发现:影响三个地区房地产投资的因素不同,且重要性不一致。房地产销售价格变动与上海房地产投资风险关系最为密切,居民消费价格指数波动对辽宁房地产投资影响最大,而房地产投资的波动直接影响贵州房地产业的健康运行。对这三个重要指标设定极端情景,三个地区的房地产投资风险出现了不同程度的提高,由此得出,在投资这三个地区或与其相似类型的地区时,要充分考虑实际的宏观经济情况,特别是显著指标的变动情况,使投资更加的合理和安全。

Stress Test on Real Estate Development Investment Based on Logistic Regression Model

Through studies from domestic and foreign researches’ results,the thesis points out that it is necessary and feasible to carry on stress test analysis on real estate development investment.So we start to study on it.In this research, we choose Shanghai,Liaoning and Guizhou as representations after thorough consideration of the regional difference in our country’s real estate development investment: Firstly,we analyze the factors that influence the investment, and then establish Logistic regression model to evaluate real estate development investment’s risk,from the Logistic regression model we find the most important factors,then design extreme macroeconomic scenarios,finally do the test to see the results.Results displayed that:"Different regions have different significant factors.The fluctuations of real estate price,Consumer Price Index and the amount of real estate investment have much stronger impact on Shanghai,Liaoning and Guizhou respectively than other factors;when we construct extreme macroeconomic scenarios,the probability of risk increases in different degrees.So we conclude that we must fully take into account the state of the economy especially the significant factors’ fluctuations to make real estate development investment more reasonable and safer.