土地财政对实际汇率的影响——理论与实证

研究目的:探究中国土地财政政策对外部实际汇率的影响,客观分析土地财政对实际汇率影响的传导路径,反思土地财政对实际汇率的政策意义。研究方法:中介效应分析,静态及动态面板模型。研究结果:地方政府对土地财政的依赖会导致省际实际汇率贬值,土地财政通过要素市场扭曲收益效应与房价效应两条中介渠道对实际汇率产生影响,即土地财政通过促进要素扭曲收益提升与房价收入比提升的传导机制导致外部实际汇率贬值。研究结论:地方政府应避免工业企业利用政策优势落入价格竞争陷阱,同时扭转房地产行业的畸形状态。

Influence of Land Finance on Real Exchange Rate: A Theoretical Exploration and Empirical Research

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of land finance on the external real exchange rate in China and explain the conduction route objectively to reconsider the policy significance of land finance on the real exchange rate. The methods of literature research, mediation effect analysis, static and dynamic panel models were employed. The results show that the increasing dependency on land finance leads to the depreciation of the real exchange rate through two channels: the factor market distortion revenue effect and the housing price effect. The land finance has led to the depreciation of the external real exchange rate through the transmission mechanism that promotes the factor market distortion revenue and the increase in the ratio of housing price to income. In conclusion, the local government should prevent the policies in favor of industrial enterprises from falling into the price competition trap, and rectify the abnormal situation of the real estate industry.